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Container Shipping & Trade

Container Shipping & Trade

2018: container supply and demand crash?

Mon 02 Oct 2017 by Rebecca Moore

2018: container supply and demand crash?

Just as the box ship industry was getting back on its feet after some of its toughest years it has ever had it has been announced that both CMA CGM and MSC have each placed orders for a series of 22,000 TEU ships. And according to VesselsValue MSC’s 242,000 TEU order is the fifth largest ULCS order ever

Company

Order Year

Total TEU

Number

Av. Size

Moller Maersk AS

2015

          356,262

                20

            17,813

Shoei Kisen

2015

          310,000

                19

            16,316

Oriental Fleet International

2015

          252,000

                12

            21,000

Moller Maersk AS

2011

          365,640

                20

            18,282

MSC

2017

          242,000

                11

            22,000

VesselsValue data shows that 2018 – where we will see the first delivery of a 22,000 TEU ship - will be the highest year on record for ULCV deliveries. This figure currently stands at 1.12 million TEU booked in for delivery.

Delivery Year

Live

 On Order

 Grand Total

2011

            154,088

                      -  

            154,088

2012

            194,242

                      -  

            194,242

2013

            216,088

                      -  

            216,088

2014

            454,624

                      -  

            454,624

2015

            763,175

                      -  

            763,175

2016

            477,394

                      -  

            477,394

2017

            590,365

           467,291

         1,057,656

2018

 

        1,120,214

         1,120,214

2019

 

           464,300

            464,300

2020

 

           168,450

            168,450

Grand Total

        2,849,976

       2,220,255

        5,070,231 

And we could be looking at even more - there is still an additional 467,291 TEU scheduled to be delivered in the remainder of this year. VesselsValue head analyst Toby Yeabsley pointed out that the expectation was that there would be some slippage in deliveries from 2017 to 2018, adding to the oversupply of tonnage,

The concern is that other carriers could follow suit and take advantage of the low newbuild costs.

Whether another downturn is around the corner depends on whether other shipping lines follow in the footsteps of MSC and CMA CGM.

 As SeaIntelligence Consulting chief executive Lars Jensen warned “the modus operandi has always been to follow the first movers and order similar new large vessels.”

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